It's too Early to Call the Apple Watch a Flop
Dan Frommer writing for QZ on why we simply shouldn’t be calling the Apple Watch a flop, but that it makes sense that sales have somewhat declined, particularly because of the time of year.
More broadly, this is hardly peak gadget-buying season. As for most consumer electronics, the December (holiday) quarter will likely be Apple’s largest for watch sales. Last year, Apple generated almost 40% of its overall sales during the December quarter, versus almost 20% during the June quarter.
This is true. Summer is generally a bad time to buy gadgets. For as long as I can remember, unless you had a birthday in the summer, most people receive gifts during the holiday season, which for most of the world is during the fourth quarter. Still, if Apple Watch sales have dropped (and I believe they have), there has to be a reason, right? Of course there is and that reason is because it’s simply not a must have.
Frommer agrees:
It’s just not something everyone needs. But neither was the first iPod, iPhone, or iPad. Of the 726 million iPhones Apple had shipped through March, only 0.2% were shipped in the first three months. Recall that Apple even cut iPhone prices by $200 a couple months after their mid-2007 debut. And of the 271 million iPads shipped through March, only 1% were shipped in the launch quarter.
That’s the most important thing to remember. The iPod, iPhone, and iPad all got off to relatively slow starts. Many people may not remember, but the iPod was especially slow to get going. It only worked with a Mac and it was $500 bucks! It took a few years of iteration and the iTunes Music Store to really get it going and that didn’t happen after three months. It took more than a year.
The iPhone was similar. It was locked down by a single carrier in the U.S. (AT&T), it didn’t have 3G, an App Store, and it was at $600 bucks. It wasn’t until the price dropped to $200 (on contract) and we got 3G and the App Store that we started to see some serious adoption. And even that took a couple of years. In fact, I’m convinced that had the iPhone always been $600 off-contract, it would have taken much longer to get going. Remember, many of us were paying no more than a couple hundred dollars for our phones and our plans were also like $30 – $40 dollars, not $80+ dollars.
The iPad was different. While people made fun of it at first, the iPad actually benefited from being a “bigger iPhone.” Why? Because everything was in place. Developers had experience building apps for the iPhone, they knew iOS relatively well, they understood touch, and the App Store existed. All those things helped iPad adoption grow at a slightly faster rate simply because when you picked up and iPad, it was quite literally a big iPhone.
The Apple Watch isn’t just a new product category, it’s a new way of thinking about technology. When is the last time you wore technology on your wrist unless you were a Fitbit or Jawbone user? How many people in the world wear a watch everyday? This sort of shift in the physical aspect of technology takes time to get used to. It doesn’t happen over night, like Mark Wilson seems to think. It often takes many years.
That’s why none of us should be calling the Apple Watch a flop. At least not yet. To do so is to potentially make yourself look like an idiot in just a few years time. Do these people not realize that all things take time? Have they not read about the adoption of the automobile, electricity, and other innovations that we take for granted today?
All products, no matter how game-changing they are take time. Before you jump and call the Apple Watch a flop, you should consider taking Benedict Evans’ advice.